The beginning of the new week, after a long weekend, is likely to be dull with a downward bias. Gift Nifty at 23815 signals a weak opening on Monday. Analysts expect the market to remain volatile ahead of F&O expiry this Thursday.
The focus has now shifted to the results season, said analysts, who expect some calm on the tariff front.
Vishnu Kant Upadhyay, AVP – Research & Advisory, Master Capital Services, said: Several factors have converged to drive the recent sharp rally in Indian markets, despite global trade uncertainty. Over the last three trading sessions, foreign portfolio investors have purchased over $1 billion worth of Indian equities after a prolonged selling streak. Additionally, foreign allocations to Indian equities had dropped to their lowest level in years, leaving global funds structurally underweight on India and creating a significant allocation gap, which could potentially lead to further buying in the future.
Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said: This week all eye,s will be on the earnings reports of heavyweights such as Infosys, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank (that came out post market closing). Additionally, companies such as HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Maruti are scheduled to announce their quarterly results. On the derivatives front, the scheduled expiry of April series contracts may lead to increased volatility, he said, adding that globally, any updates related to tariffs and their potential impact on world markets will remain in focus.”
However, with the emergence of foreign portfolio investors as buyers, the market will see buying interest at lower levels.
Dr. V.K. Vijayakumar , Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, said: There was a distinct reversal of FII activity during the last three trading days ending April 17. FIIs bought stocks worth ₹14,670 crore in the cash market during the last three trading days. “This reversal in FII activity has been caused by two important factors. One, decline in the dollar index to around the 100 level and the expectation of further weakness in the dollar nudging FIIs away from the US to emerging markets like India. Two, both the US and China will report subdued growth this year, while India is expected to clock a growth rate of 6 per cent in FY 26, even in an unfavourable global environment. This relative outperformance by India in growth can lead to outperformance in the market, too. Therefore, the FII buying trend can sustain even in this uncertain environment,” he said.
All investors, including FIIs, are likely to focus on domestic consumption themes such as financials, telecom, aviation, cement, select autos and healthcare.
F&O trading has turned mildly positive.
Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said: The derivatives set-up remains cautiously optimistic. Put writers have retained a slight edge over call writers, suggesting confidence in holding the downside, he said. “Notably, the 24,000 strike saw a considerable build-up of Open Interest (OI) with 56.41 lakh contracts, establishing it as a near-term cap. Meanwhile, strong put writing at the 23,500 level — amounting to 86.14 lakh contracts — underscores solid demand just below current prices. This reflects a phase of accumulation by confident bulls. The 23,800–24,000 region now emerges as a key resistance band. However, initial signs of call writing shifting to higher strikes indicate emerging confidence. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) rose from 0.84 to 1.14, showcasing a strengthening bullish tilt. Max Pain remains positioned at 23,600, signalling that while resistance is nearby, the upward move remains in play,” he added.
Published on April 21, 2025
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