Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank indices opened the week on a positive note with a wide gap-up. After sustaining higher all through the week, the indices lost momentum on Friday. The geopolitical tension between India and Pakistan after the terror attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam is weighing on the markets. However, as mentioned last week, the bullish trend reversal is confirmed. There are chances to see an intermediate dip before a fresh leg of upmove begins. Strong supports are there for the Sensex, Nifty and the Nifty Bank index which can limit the downside. So, the dip that is expected can give another chance to enter the market from a long-term perspective.
Among the sectors, the BSE IT index surged the most and outperformed last week. The index was up 5.87 per cent.
FPI’s Buy
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) bought the Indian equities for the second consecutive week. Indeed, the quantum of purchase was high. The equity segment saw a net inflow of about $2.04 billion last week. If the FPIs continue to buy, then it can aid the Sensex and Nifty to scale new highs going forward.
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Nifty 50 (24,039.35)
Nifty opened the week on a positive note and closed above the psychological 24,000 mark on Monday. It rose to a high of 24,359.30 on Wednesday and the fell from there. The fall intensified on Friday as the index touched a low of 23,847.85 before closing the week at 24,039.35, up 0.79 per cent.
Short-term view: The broader bias is positive. But the fall on Friday keeps the near-term outlook slightly weak. Immediate support is in the 23,950-23,900 region. If the Nifty manages to sustain above 23,900, it can oscillate in a range of 23,900-24.400 for some time.
But, a break below 23,900 can trigger a corrective fall to 23,500 or 23,300. However, a fall beyond 23,300 is unlikely. We can expect the Nifty to reverse higher from the 23,500-23,300 support zone. That rise will have the potential to breach 24,400. Such a break can take the Nifty up to 25,000 in the short term.
Overall the bias is positive to breach 24,400 and rise to 25,000. But whether this rise is going to happen from here itself or after a short-lived dip to 23,500-23,300 needs to be seen.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The broader bullish view is intact. Nifty can rise to 25,000-26,000 initially in the next couple of months. From a long-term perspective, Nifty has potential to target 28,000-28,500 by the end of this year or early next year.
Cluster of supports are there in the broad 23,000-22,000 region. We can expect fresh buyers to come into the market and limit the downside. As mentioned last week, the bullish outlook will get negated only if the Nifty declines below 21,650 which looks unlikely at the moment.
Nifty Bank (54,644.05)
Nifty Bank index rose breaking above the intermediate resistance level of 54,500 last week. It touched a high of 56,098.70 and then fell sharply giving back some of the gains. The index has closed the week at 54,644.05, up 0.69 per cent.
Short-term view: The reversal from around 56,000 last week leaves the near-term outlook negative. The Nifty Bank index can see a corrective fall to 53,000 or 52,800 this week. But this 53,000-52,800 support zone can halt the fall. Fresh buyers are likely to come into the market around these levels.
As such, the index can reverse higher again from the 53,000-52,800 support zone. That leg of upmove can take the index back to 56,000 again. A decisive break above 56,000 can then clear the way for the Nifty Bank index to target 58,000 on the upside.
The bullish view will get negated only if the index declines below 52,800. If that happens, we can see a fall to 51,000. But such a fall looks less likely.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The view remains bullish. The region between 53,000 and 52,500 will act as a strong support zone. We retain our view of the Nifty Bank index targeting 58,000 on the upside. After this rise, a corrective fall is 56,000 is a possibility. But from a long-term perspective, the Nifty Bank index has potential to target 61,000 on the upside.
Sensex (79,212.53)
Sensex reclaimed the 80,000 mark last week, but failed to get a strong follow-through rise. The index made a high of 80,254.55 and had come off from there. It has closed the week at 79,212.53, up 0.84 per cent.
Short-term view: Immediate support is at 78,600. A break below it can drag the index down to 77,250 or 77,000 this week. However, a fall below 77,000 looks less likely as fresh buyers are likely to come into the market and limit the downside.
A bounce from the 77,250-77,000 support zone can take the Sensex up to 80,000-80,250 again. A decisive break above 80,250 can then take the index up to 82,000-82,300 in the short term.
In case the Sensex manages to sustain above 78,600, it can oscillate in a range of 78,600-80,250 for some time. Thereafter a bullish breakout above 80,250 can happen.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The broader bullish view remains intact. 76,000-75,500 can be a good intermediate support. We retain our view of seeing 85,000-86,000 initially in the coming months. From a long-term perspective, Sensex has potential to target 90,000 and even 92,000 over the next one year.
Sensex has to decline below 70,800 to negate this bullish view. That looks unlikely now.
Dow Jones (40,113.51)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 38,000 again as expected last week. However, the index has risen back well from the low of 37,830.66 recovering all the loss. It has closed the week at 40,113.51, up 2.48 per cent.
Chart Source: TradingView
Outlook: The immediate outlook is mixed and unclear. There is a possible range of 37,800-41,000 within which the index seems to be oscillating now. Within this range, a rise to test 41,000 looks possible now. If the Dow manages to breach 41,000, an extended rise to 42,000-42,200 can be seen. But a reversal from around 41,000 can drag the Dow down to 40,000 and lower. It will then continue to keep the sideways range intact.
Ideally, the Dow Jones has to rise above 42,200 to bring back the bullish sentiment.
Published on April 26, 2025
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